Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction
The Houston Astros (91-64) and Oakland Athletics (84-71) close out their three-game series Sunday. First pitch from Oakland Coliseum is slated for 4:07 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The A's have won the first two games of the series with the first being a 14-2 rout Friday and the second being decided by a walk-off RBI double from CF Starling Marte in Oakland's 2-1 win Saturday.
Season series: Astros lead 9-6.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is Houston's projected starter. Odorizzi is 6-7 with a 4.22 ERA (96 IP, 45 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in Houston's 15-1 victory at the Texas Rangers with 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 1 K. Odorizzi exited early with a sprained foot and missed his last start while on the injured list.
- Road splits: 4-4 with a 4.70 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.23 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB in 12 starts.
- vs. A's on the current roster (102 PA): 3.58 FIP with a .194 batting average, .238 wOBA, .413 expected slugging percentage, 18.6 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity.
RHP Paul Blackburn gets the nod for the A's. Blackburn is 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 across seven starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. the Seattle Mariners.
- Home splits: 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 22 H, 3 BB and 14 K over four starts.
Astros at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Astros -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Athletics -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+133) | Athletics +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Astros 8, Athletics 5
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the ASTROS (-117) because, between starting and relief pitching, I'd give Houston the edge and the Astros have the much more productive lineup.
Oakland's bullpen has the second-worst ERA in September and the fourth-worst WAR. Also, Blackburn has an ERA higher than 5 over his last seven starts and Odorizzi has a sub-3 ERA in his last seven outings.
On top of that, Houston has a better record in division games, against right-handed starters and is 35-26 overall as a road favorite while Oakland is only 7-12 as a home underdog.
Furthermore, the Astros clearly have the best lineup in road games. Houston's lineup ranks first in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate away from home.
PASS because the payout for Houston's money line isn't steep enough considering the Astros are just 29-32 ATS as road favorites and the A's are 12-7 ATS as home underdogs. Also, three of the last four Astros-Athletics meetings have been decided by a single run.
"LEAN" to the OVER 9.5 (+105) for a small wager because of the Oakland bullpen's aforementioned struggles this month, Houston's hitting prowess on the road and the Astros having a 13-6 O/U when Odorizzi gets the start.
Additionally, the Over has cashed in 12 of the last 17 Astros-Athletics meetings and eight of the last nine in Oakland.
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