Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction
The San Diego Padres (78-76) host the Atlanta Braves (81-72) Saturday for the second of their three-game series at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Technically, these teams split a doubleheader Friday, but the first game was a makeup for a July 21st meeting that was suspended due to weather in the bottom of the 5th.
San Diego won the makeup game 6-5 then Atlanta took the second game 4-0 behind a complete-game shutout from starting LHP Max Fried.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Huascar Ynoa is Atlanta's projected starter. Ynoa is 4-5 with a 3.43 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in Atlanta's 11-4 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in seven starts and one bullpen outing.
RHP Vince Velasquez takes the hill for the Padres. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.23 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 60 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 19 starts and four relief appearances for the Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.
- Last outing: Loss, 8-6, with 1 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB and 2 K Wednesday vs. the San Francisco Giants.
- Velasquez is 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season with an 8.22 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.19 FIP with a .289 batting average, .396 wOBA, .386 expected slugging percentage, 28.3 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity in 145 plate appearances.
Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Padres +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Padres +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Braves 7, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
I'll take the bait and BET the BRAVES (-120) for 1 unit despite the suspicious "reverse line movement". According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the cash and 80% of the action is on the Braves, but oddsmakers have made Atlanta's money line cheaper despite the one-way action.
Typically, I'd avoid falling into this trap, but I'm out on the Padres for the rest of this season. San Diego's descent out of playoff contention isn't getting nearly the coverage it deserves.
The Padres have won just 10 of their last 30 games and are 7 games back of the second NL Wild Card seed with eight games left. Also, the Braves are playing better in the three most important phases of baseball: Starting and relief pitching and hitting.
"LEAN" to the BRAVES -1.5 (+130) for a tiny wager because Atlanta's money line is a wiser wager. But, the Braves are 25-21 ATS as a road favorite and the Padres are 4-9 ATS as a home underdog.
More importantly, San Diego's bullpen has regressed heavily this month and ranks in the bottom-10 in advanced pitching stats such as ERA, xFIP, home run per nine-inning rate and hard-hit rate.
PASS because I'm not a fan of either starting pitcher, but these teams have a combined 16-17 O/U record when these starters take the mound.
Also, the presumed sharp side of the market is betting the Under, and the public is betting the Over. I don't want to fade the money and follow the crowd in this spot.
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